The “Skinny” On “Real” Unemployment Figures?

http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/2011/04/03/the-hindery-memo-on-jobs-the-real-unemployment-picture-shows-us-economy-short-20-million-jobs/

NoQuarter is a blog run by Larry Johnson, who was aCIA employee for a number of years. Johnson himself is strongly critical of President Obama, but he has a number of fellow contributors to the site, who are all over the map on a variety of issues.

This posting spotlights “The Hindery Memo” which tries  to take a look at the factors inside the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports. Leo Hindery is a former financier for Team Obama, so he is not a good candidate for labelling a “Tea Party Racist.”

His stats are more in line with Gallup’s than with the BLS 8.8.  The discussion of the under employed at the off-the-rolls unemployed is interesting. Those numbers have been a football for years, for both parties. My Democrat friends used to trot out the “given up  looking” argument during the Bush years to argue unemployment was worse than the BLS said.  Today, however, the unemployment rate is really dangerous and the inflationary pressures in the economy are a serious threat.

Note Larry Doyle’s argument: that even if the temporary stats are improving the fundamentals of hiring are weak:

http://www.senseoncents.com/2011/04/unemployment-report-review-april-1-2011-we-need-yeast/

Specifically, Larry mentions a lack of wage increase. This is a hideous double whammy. No wage increases in the face of inflation means less money to spend for consumers, and increased costs to producers and fewer dollars spent means fewer jobs. This is not a good recipe. The temporary solution is, of course, various forms of federal spending, quantitive easing and expanded use of credit.  The risk:

KA-BOOM!

Hyper-inflation or a delationary cycle. If you read The Market Ticker, Karl Denninger has argued the risks of deflation.

Advertisements
This entry was posted in Economic Forecasts, Employment, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s